Poker Tip - Gamblers Fallacy Applies to Poker Hands

Many Texas Holdem players have a “favorite hand”. It may be a hand that won a tournament for them, or some other memorable hand. Certainly, everyone’s favorite is pocket aces, but some have “personal attachments” to others.

There is nothing wrong with this, so long as you remain objective about the hand. Sometimes, the opposite is true with poker hands. Sometimes you get a good hand, perhaps A-K, several times throughout the course of a session and have lost with it every time. This may happen for days at a time.

Pretty soon, you don’t want to even look at A-K. You begin to feel as it there is no possible way you could ever win with that hand. Statisticians will often tell you about something called a “gambler’s fallacy.” The gambler’s fallacy is to believe that just because a flipped coin comes up heads four times in a row, that it will come up heads again.

The opposite is also sometimes incorrectly believed: since it came up heads four times, it will have to come up tails this time. It may come up heads again, or it may come up tails again, but it has nothing to do with the previous four flips.

The online poker odds of it coming up heads or tails in the next flip are exactly the same: 50%. The same theory applies to Texas Holdem. Getting beat several times in a row with the same hand should not affect your decision to the play the hand in the future.

Keep in mind that each hand is a new start in Texas Holdem. The button is in a different place, there may be different players in the hand, and the flop will certainly be different. A good Texas Holdem player will evaluate each hand individually, and decide independently of previous hands if the current hand merits a call, a raise, or should be folded.

A pocket pair that has been beaten several times may become a winner for you the next time played. You will almost certainly be frustrated even more if you decide to fold those pocket 10’s before the flop and see a third ten on the flop. This will not help your disposition any, and could have been avoided if you adhere to the concept in the “gamblers fallacy.”

This applies only to better than average online poker hands. Expecting a 7-4 to win for you is not realistic, and will almost certainly remain a loser for you.

Experience will help you to understand which hands are better than average, but, this should be a very easy process. In short, play each hand individually, and don’t rely on past experiences to make your judgment for you.